ЕВРОПЕЙСКАЯ КОНТАКТНАЯ ЗОНА: 2000

EUROPEAN CONTACT ZONE: 2000

Санкт-Петербург - 2000

SOCIO-CULTURAL FOUNDATIONS

OF EAST-EUROPEAN & RUSSIAN GEOPOLITICS

This report is based on the theory of socio-cultural systems (SCS) developed by the author. As a matter of fact, it is one of its possible, numerous applications. First of all - several words about the theory itself as far as it is still a relatively new thing for Western colleagues.

We work on the SCS theory approximately since 1984. Its developing moves quite slowly. Between 1984-97 we finished no single book, though wrote and keep on our PC several thousands of pages on Russian, Western, Chinese and Black African SCS-s. These texts are mainly just preliminary materials. Many times we’ve tried to complete the general theory as well as more specific texts on various SCS-s, but until very recently - without much success.

Our current problem with the SCS theory is that its abstract description would be unconvincing and looking more like usual scientific speculation (that is not right). It’s necessary to compile a specific analysis of the existing SCS-s, but such analysis of one distinct SCS is highly difficult to be made: all the socio-cultural systems are closely connected, and the correct understanding of each one is only possible in case of taking into account all their interrelations. So, we have to bring out descriptions of all the SCS-s, plus the theory in general at the same time, that is extremely complicated task: each SCS is a special kind of reality, with its own logic and rules, and it’s simply impossible to describe all the existing and existed SCS-s in an observable future. Such work would require a lot of time and in general seems unlikely to be done by two people. Not only the scale of the task itself is the point, but one surely cannot correctly depict all the SCS-s in principle. In fact, being the people of the Russian SCS, we can examine and accurately describe only it. Muslim, Chinese, Black African SCS-s and others still remain not entirely understandable; to characterise them in all details we’d have to explain many nuances of their past and present - but to do so we have to be the people of these SCS-s. It doesn’t mean one cannot understand another SCS at all: the point is detailed examination of the SCS's evolution only - at least, so we think at the moment.

The SCS theory has numerous applications in the field of geopolitics and analysis of the space assimilation processes. In this report we'll consider only some aspects, and more specifically - socio-cultural foundations of East-European and Russian geopolitics. More systematically these were presented in our publications [1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7].

1. Socio-cultural processes of the space assimilation do have their own logic that unfolds for centuries. Geopolitical processes are just the individual manifestations of these fundamental socio-cultural phenomena. The geopolitical level does usually attract most attention and provoke the most sharp reaction that often leads to its incorrect interpretation. The SCS theory allows for a more accurate description of the space assimilation processes. Geopolitics, as from the positions of the theory, become just one of its particular applications.

We won't repeat here all ideas and principles of the SCS theory - just refer to the respective appendixes to this report:

APPENDIX 1. THE TERMINOLOGY AND CONCEPTS USED: DEFINITIONS

APPENDIX 2. TYPES OF THE SOCIO-CULTURAL FORMATIONS; SOCIO-CULTURAL TYPE'S INDICATIONS / QUALITIES

APPENDIX 3. PERIODS OF THE SOCIO-CULTURAL SYSTEMS' EVOLUTION

APPENDIX 4. PERIODS AND SUBPERIODS OF THE SOCIO-CULTURAL SYSTEMS' EVOLUTION

The above presents the general concept of the SCS theory as well as principal facts of the socio-cultural evolution and dynamics.

2. We've performed comparative analysis of the European and Asia Minor external buffer zones' evolution. The result of the analysis - atlas of the computer generated space-time models (kartoids) that reflects the logic of this space evolution. Geopolitical problems of the region and its conflicts appear as particular consequences of the general evolution. Suggested system of the computer generated space-time models creates a principally new foundation for further geopolitical processes' forecasting / prognosis.

The atlas serves as a foundation for forecasting geopolitical processes in the entire European external buffer zone. It also reflects and correctly explains the processes in the Balkans, the essence and state of the current crisis there. We insist that these processes don't possess chaotic geopolitical character, but are consequences of the regular evolution of the region.

Some results of such analysis are presented in the papers of my colleague - Tatiana Nikolaenko.

Here is just the periodization for all the European external buffer zone's socio-cultural regions and Asia Minor.

Asia Minor as external buffer zone. General description

Subperiod N 1.

As from ancient times up to VIII century BC.

Subperiod N 2.

From VIII century BC until 327 BC.

Subperiod N 3.

From 327 until 180-s BC.

Subperiod N 4.

From 180-s BC until 110 AD.

Subperiod N 5.

From 110 until 380 AD.

Subperiod N 6.

From 380 until 610.

Subperiod N 7.

From 610 until 870-s.

Subperiod N 8.

From 870-s until early XI century.

Subperiod N 9.

From early XI century until late XIII century.

Subperiod N 10.

From second half of the XIII century until 1453.

Subperiod N 11.

From 1453 until 1680-s.

Subperiod N 12.

From 1680-s until 1770-s.

Subperiod N 13.

From 1770-s until 1856.

Subperiod N 14.

From 1856 until 1908.

Subperiod N 15.

From 1908 until 1980-s.

Subperiod N 16.

From late 1980-s and for some future.

Subperiod N 17.

Prognosis: more distant future

European external buffer zone. General analysis

Subperiod 1.

As from ancient times up until 113 BC

Subperiod 2.

From 113 BC until 110 AD

Subperiod 3.

From 110 until 380

Subperiod 4.

From 380-s until mid VI century

Subperiod 5.

From mid VI century until mid VIII century

Subperiod 6.

From mid VIII century until late X century

Subperiod 7.

From late X century until 1241

Subperiod 8.

From 1241 until 1380

Subperiod 9.

From 1380 until 1570-s

Subperiod 10.

From 1570-s until 1700

Subperiod 11.

From 1700 until 1772

Subperiod 12.

From 1772 until 1831

Subperiod 13.

From 1832 until 1870

Subperiod 14.

From 1871 until 1917

Subperiod 15.

From 1917 until 1945

Subperiod 16.

From 1945 until late 1980-s

Subperiod 17.

From late 1980-s and for some future

Cycle 5. Subperiods 18 - 19 - 20. Prognosis

Finnish region

Stage 1-1.

As from ancient times up until early IX century

Stage 1-2.

From early IX century until early XIII century

Stage 2-1.

From early XIII century until late XVI century

Stage 2-2.

From late XVI century until late XVII century

Stage 2-3.

From late XVII century until 1721

Subperiod N 3.

From 1721 until early XIX century

Subperiod N 4.

From early XIX century until 1917

Stage 5-1.

From 1917 until 1920

Stage 5-2.

From 1920 until 1939

Stage 5-3.

From 1939 until 1945

Stage 5-4.

From 1945 until 1991

Subperiod N 6.

From 1991 and for some future

Norwegian - Swedish - Danish region

Subperiod N 1.

As from ancient times up until late VIII century AD

Subperiod N 2.

From late VIII century until early XI century

Subperiod N 3.

From early XI century until early - mid XIII century

Subperiod N 4.

From early - mid XIII century until 1471

Subperiod N 5.

From 1471 until late XVII century

Subperiod N 6.

From late XVII century until early XIX century

Subperiod N 7.

From early XIX century until early XX century

Stage 8-1.

From early XX century until 1920

Stage 8-2.

From 1920 until 1939

Stage 8-3.

From 1939 until 1945

Stage 8-4.

From 1945 until 1991

Subperiod N 9.

From late XX century and for some future

Latvian - Estonian region

Stage 1-1.

As from ancient times up until early VIII century AD

Stage 1-2.

From early VIII century until early XIII century

Stage 2-1.

From early XIII century until 1370

Stage 2-2.

From 1370 until 1570-s

Stage 3-1.

From 1570-s until 1580-s

Stage 3-2.

From 1580-s until 1700

Stage 3-3.

From 1700 until 1721

Subperiod N 4.

From 1721 until 1914

Stage 5-1.

From 1914 until 1920

Stage 5-2.

From 1920 until 1939

Stage 5-3.

From 1939 until 1945

Stage 5-4.

From 1945 until 1991

Subperiod N 6.

From 1991 and for some future

Lithuanian region

Stage 1-1.

As from ancient times up until early VIII century AD

Stage 1-2.

From early VIII century until early XI century

Stage 1-3.

From early XI century until mid XIII century

Subperiod N 2.

From mid XIII century until 1386

Subperiod N 3.

From 1386 until 1462

Stage 4-1.

From 1462 until 1569

Stage 4-2.

From 1569 until 1650-s

Stage 4-3.

From 1650-s until 1795

Stage 5-1.

From 1795 until 1831

Stage 5-2.

From 1831 until 1861

Stage 5-3.

From 1861 until 1914

Stage 5-4.

From 1914 until 1920

Stage 6-1.

From 1920 until 1939

Stage 6-2.

From 1939 until 1945

Stage 6-3.

From 1945 until 1991

Stage 7-1.

From 1991 and for some future

Polish region

Subperiod N 1.

As from ancient times up until VIII century AD

Subperiod N 2.

From VIII century until 966

Subperiod N 3.

From 966 until 1241

Subperiod N 4.

From 1241 until 1386

Subperiod N 5.

From 1386 until 1570-s

Subperiod N 6.

From 1570-s until 1667

Subperiod N 7.

From 1667 until 1772

Subperiod N 8.

From 1772 until 1831

Subperiod N 9.

From 1831 until 1918

Stage 9-1.

From 1831 until 1861

Stage 9-2.

From 1861 until 1914

Stage 9-3.

From 1914 until 1918

Subperiod N 10.

From 1918 until 1980-s

Stage 10-1.

From 1918 until 1921

Stage 10-2.

From 1921 until 1939

Stage 10-3.

From 1939 until 1945

Stage 10-4.

From 1945 until 1980-s

Subperiod N 11.

From 1980-s and for some future

Czech-Slovakian region

Subperiod N 1.

As from ancient times up until VIII century AD

Subperiod N 2.

From VIII century until late X century

Subperiod N 3.

From late X century until 1241

Subperiod N 4.

From 1241 until 1380-s

Subperiod N 5.

From 1380-s until 1485

Subperiod N 6.

From 1485 until 1648

Subperiod N 7.

From 1648 until 1848

Subperiod N 8.

From 1848 until 1914

Stage 9-1.

From 1914 until 1919

Stage 9-2.

From 1919 until 1938

Stage 9-3.

From 1938 until 1945

Stage 9-4.

From 1945 until 1968

Stage 9-5.

From 1968 until 1980-s

Subperiod N 10.

From 1980-s and for some future

Hungarian region

Stage 1-1.

As from ancient times up until mid VI century AD

Stage 1-2.

From mid VI century until late VIII century

Subperiod N 2.

From late VIII century until early XI century

Subperiod N 3.

From early XI century until 1241

Subperiod N 4.

From 1241 until 1380-s

Subperiod N 5.

From 1380-s until 1541

Subperiod N 6.

From 1541 until late XVII century

Subperiod N 7.

From late XVII century until late XVIII century

Subperiod N 8.

From late XVIII century until 1830

Subperiod N 9.

From 1830 until 1917

Stage 9-2.

From 1848 until 1867

Stage 9-3.

From 1867 until 1914

Stage 9-4.

From 1914 until 1918

Subperiod N 10.

From 1918 until late 1980-s

Stage 10-1.

From 1918 until 1920

Stage 10-2.

From 1920 until 1939

Stage 10-3.

From 1939 until 1945

Stage 10-4.

From 1945 until 1980-s

Subperiod N 11.

From late 1980-s and for some future

Romanian - Bulgarian - Moldavian region

Subperiod N 1.

As from ancient times up until AD

Subperiod N 2.

AD until 370-s

Subperiod N 3.

From 370-s until late VII century

Subperiod N 4.

From late VII century until late X century

Subperiod N 5.

From late X century until late XIV century

Subperiod N 6.

From late XIV century until 1480-s

Subperiod N 7.

From 1480-s until 1774

Subperiod N 8.

From mid 1770-s until 1878

Subperiod N 9.

From 1878 until early XX century

Stage 10-1.

From 1908 until 1914

Stage 10-2.

From 1914 until 1918

Stage 10-3.

From 1918 until 1940

Stage 10-4.

From 1940 until 1945

Stage 10-5.

From 1945 until late 1980-s

Subperiod N 11.

From late 1980-s and for some future

Balkan region

Subperiod N 1.

As from ancient times up until mid II century BC

Subperiod N 2.

From II century BC until 370-s AD

Subperiod N 3.

From 370-s until early IX century

Subperiod N 4.

From early IX century until late XII century

Subperiod N 5.

From late XII century until late XIV century

Subperiod N 6.

From late XIV century until late XVII century

Subperiod N 7.

From late XVII century until 1870-s

Subperiod N 8.

From 1870-s until early XX century

Stage 9-1.

From 1908 until 1913

Stage 9-2.

From 1914 until 1918

Stage 9-3.

From 1918 until 1939

Stage 9-4.

From 1939 until 1945

Stage 9-5.

From 1945 until 1980-s

Subperiod N 10.

From late 1980-s and for some future

3. One of the most essential points here is existence of clear correlation in evolution of the European external buffer zone and Asia Minor as external buffer zone. No detailed description of all these correlations here - only combined general tables.

CHRONOLOGY OF EVOLUTION:

EUROPEAN EXTERNAL BUFFER ZONE